Sunday, October 20, 2013

The Economically Impossible Optimum Faring

Let's imagine you've chosen 3 flights for your trip: A, B and C, how can the system (i.e. the GDS) price them ?
1 ticket:
ABC on the same ticket
2 tickets:
A+BC
AC+B
AB+C
3 tickets:
A+B+C

that's already 5 choices. For 4 flights, this number raises to 15, 5, to 52...
here is the table summing the total number of combinations per number of flights... you quickly see that the system can not search for all the combinations in a reasonable amount of time (i.e. what you are OK to wait to get your fare)


Number of flights (legs) number of combinations
1                                                    1 
2                                                    2 
3                                                    5 
4                                                  15 
5                                                  52 
6                                                203 
7                                                877 
8                                            4,140 
9                                          21,147 
10                                       115,975 
11                                       678,570 
12                                    4,213,597 
13                                 27,644,437 
14                               190,899,322 
15 1,382,958,545 
The associated VB code:
Function myf(nombre As Long) As Long
Dim i As Integer
i = 0
If nombre <= 1 Then
myf = 1
Else
myf = myf(nombre - 1)
For i = 1 To nombre - 1 Step 1
myf = myf + myf(nombre - 1 - i) * Factorielle(nombre - 1) / (Factorielle(i) * Factorielle(nombre - 1 - i))
Next i
End If
End Function


 Thus manually "breaking" the list of flights in smaller groups (using human knowledge such as Airline alliance, airline partnership, codeshare and so on) can help a lot, in complex trip, to find an optimum fare, better than what the system could offer you.

So far, I haven't found a website or tool using these information to get an optimum fare, if you know one, please share it !

Way more details can be found here.

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